Bahamas
Moody’s Ratings has upgraded The Bahamas’ long-term ratings from “B1” to “Ba3” which changed the country’s outlook from stable to positive. The upgrade was a result of stronger fiscal performance, better government financing, lower borrowing needs, and improved economic strength.
“The issuer’s institutions and governance strength have materially increased,” Moody’s noted. “The issuer’s fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially increased.”
“The issuer’s susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed. An analysis of this issuer, relative to its peers, indicates that a repositioning of its rating would be appropriate,” Moody’s further stated in its statement, adding that the government has established a credible track record of large primary surpluses, supported by stronger revenue collection, policy measures that broaden the tax base, and continued expenditure restraint.
It said that the “revenue performance has become more durable, extending beyond the cyclical support from tourism,” projecting that “primary surpluses average approximately 4% of GDP (gross domestic product) between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2028,” which it characterizes as “among the strongest outcomes for similarly rated sovereigns.”
Moody’s Ratings said The Bahamas’ government debt is expected to fall from 72.5% of GDP in 2025 to approximately 68% by 2027. It also noted that energy sector reforms should reduce financial pressure from state-owned enterprises.
Further upgrades in the short to medium term may be possible if The Bahamas continues to improve in managing debt costs, reduce government debt faster than expected, and gains better access to low-cost financing.
Caribbean
The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is forecasting a Caribbean heat season between May and July, with heatwaves expected to gradually intensify.
It also stated that neutral Pacific conditions are expected to transition into a significant El Niño by July, a climate event linked to changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the Pacific Ocean. CariCOF added that daytime and nighttime highs could match 2024 records in the northwestern part of the region, with high evaporation rates, frequent dry spells, and increased fire potential through May.
The Forum said that although rainfall is expected to increase more slowly than usual in the wet season, shower intensity should rise by June, resulting in the risk of high to extremely high levels of flooding, flash floods, and related hazards and impacts across affected areas.
“Intrusions of dusty Saharan air will likely be frequent,” CariCOF added.
CariCOF reported that as of April, short-term drought conditions had already developed in several areas, including Antigua, parts of the Bahamas, French Guiana, St Kitts, St Lucia, St Vincent, and Suriname.
It also warned that long-term drought is imminent in Grenada, St Lucia, and south-west Belize, Martinique and may develop or continue in Barbados, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.
Guyana
Guyana’s government has announced a Guy$3 billion support package for rice farmers that are affected by rising fertiliser and fuel costs linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran.
President Irfaan Ali said the funds will be designed based on farmers’ feedback to ensure it meets their specific and varied needs.
“We want to set aside $3 billion to help you once more, but we want you to help us finalise what format it should be in,” Ali told the stakeholders, adding that the options include direct cash support, fertiliser assistance, subsidies, and acreage-based payment.
Ali said that the government’s approach to supporting rice farmers will remain consultative and based on data collected from farmers, who will be voting on receiving direct cash transfers.
The funds will be distributed as Guy$15,000 per acre for farmers with less than 50 acres of rice fields, and Guy$10,000 per acre for those with more than 50 acres.
President Ali added that the Ministry of Agriculture will immediately begin collecting community data as part of a verification process.
“We want the people in the regions to be involved in the verification so that we can move towards pulling this out,” he said, emphasizing that the three billion dollars distribution will be shaped by farmers themselves.
“Our job is to work with you, alongside you,” he added.
Jamaica
Jamaica’s government has recently appointed a four-member committee to begin the search for a new Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, as the current governor, Richard Byles, is set to complete his term in August.
Finance and Public Service Minister Fayval Williams said the committee will help identify the most suitable candidate with a focus on maintaining financial stability, modernising the financial system, and speeding up the use of digital payments in everyday transactions, especially for underserved Jamaicans. She also stressed that strong monetary policy should translate into broader economic benefits, such as jobs and increased investment.
The group will be responsible for identifying suitable candidates into a shortlist, which will then be submitted to Cabinet. The final recommendation will be made to the Governor General in accordance with the Bank of Jamaica Act.
Richard Byles has served as Governor since August 19, 2019. Before that, he spent about 40 years in the private sector in business and finance and held several major leadership roles, including serving as a Council Member at the University of the West Indies, vice-president of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica and many other company boards, and co-chairman of the Jamaica’s Economic Programme Oversight Committee, which monitored the country’s IMF-supported reform programme.
St Kitts and Nevis
The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, based in Saint Kitts and Nevis, has welcomed a report from the International Monetary Fund stating that economic growth in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) slowed to an estimated 2.8% last year.
The ECCU includes the island of Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and St Vincent and the Grenadines. The ECCB noted that the IMF reached this assessment after discussions with various stakeholders across member countries earlier this year.
“The 2026 Staff Report details the IMF’s findings from these engagements, which concentrated largely on strengthening long-term economic growth and development in the currency union,” it said. “Analysis by the ECCB indicates that real gross domestic growth (GDP) growth for the ECCU aver-aged an estimated 3.4% over the period 2023 to 2025, mainly driven by robust activity in the Tourism industry. The Bank’s preliminary projections for the ECCU economy in 2026 show expected growth of 3.3%.”
The report said the region’s financial sector remains resilient despite major economic and climate-related shocks. It noted improvements in asset quality, credit growth, and loan performance. Overall, the banking system is stable, supported by strong liquidity, solid capital buffers, and rising profitability.
The ECCB said it is committed to maintaining confidence in its currency, noting that as of April 24 the backing ratio stood at 99.04%, which is well above the required minimum of 60%.
The ECCB said it is strengthening regulation and supervision of the financial sector.
